Post-Debate Thoughts

Well, none of my questions really got asked (though, on the Ron Paul one I was close). So, I’ll just do what I usually try to do and give you my take on things before polluting my views by reading everyone else’s commentary.

Let’s work down a sliding scale from winners to losers:

Mike Huckabee

Man, is this guy good, or what? Maybe I was influenced by the intimidating image of Chuck Norris sitting down front, but this guy was on fire. His best exchange of the night was with Mitt Romney on college tuition and scholarships for children of illegal immigrants. He turned Romney’s demagoguery on the issue around 180 degrees, calmly explained what sounds like a perfectly reasonable program (I’m not familiar with the details — if Huckabee misrepresented it, I would have to reconsider), and made the former Massachusetts governor look practically hate-filled toward little immigrant children. He also gave eloquent answers on the death penalty and the Bible. And, as usual, he was the funniest of the bunch. If Mitt’s worried about Mike in Iowa — and, you know, he is — this made a Hawkeye State upset look all the more likely (which, of course, would make a Giuliani nomination all but inevitable); he may have clinched the VP slot on a Rudy ticket tonight. My one quibble is his stupid “let’s get rid of the IRS” rhetoric. That’s one thing for a fringe candidate like Ron Paul, but Huck’s moving into the big leagues. Time to act like it.

Rudy Giuliani

The former mayor didn’t have a stunningly good night, by any means. But he turned in his usual, strong, statistics-filled performance. On a night when he could have been playing serious defense — after Ben Smith’s expense report story — he came out swinging, nailing Romney with the best line of the night: “sanctuary mansion.” Ouch. Right on the unnaturally square jaw. Rudy hit a heckuva rough patch on gun control; but what can you expect when you’ve been a long-time gun-control advocate and suddenly have to do a 180? He’s taken minimal damage on this issue given how bad it could be. Just surviving with his pelt on a question like that is winning. Meanwhile, on taxes, the Bible, restoring our image in the Muslim world, etc., he did well. His video was far and away the funniest of the night, letting a little air out of all the boasting he’s done about his record in New York City (the “Reduced Annual Snowfall” bit was particularly great). For everyone who complains that he’s running on 9/11, I’ve always thought that’s unfair given how much attention his campaign, and his supporters, have given his deeper record in NYC.

To address the expense report story separately, which of course Rudy did when prompted by Anderson Cooper, I fail to see how there’s a real story here. I expect we’ll find out more as to how security expenses are usually paid for in the mayor’s office. But given that Mayor Giuliani had a security detail 24/7, as he said at the debate, no matter where he was, I just don’t see how it matters whether he was at Judy Nathan’s apartment, in Florida, in Kalamazoo, or anywhere else. As even the Smith story makes clear, other trips — completely non-Nathan-related — appear to have been billed in similar ways. I thought this afternoon that this might become a big story, but it looks like a whole lot of nothing to me a few hours later.

Mitt Romney

Now, my intense dislike of Mitt Romney contributes to my analysis here, but: wow, what a bad performance. Who “won” the Rudy-Romney exchange on immigration probably depends on who you liked going in (correct answer: they both lost, by perpetuating the GOP’s new anti-immigrant line). But he just came off as such a transparent liar on so many questions. He once looked forward to a day when gays could serve openly in the military; now that he has to win over homophobic GOP primary voters, he doesn’t anymore. He once supported a woman’s right to choose; miraculously enough, he underwent a politically convenient conversion on the issue. He’s against torture; but he has the balls to go toe-to-toe with John McCain on waterboarding. The former Baptist preacher can acknowledge that the Bible is allegorical; to Romney, it’s simply the “word of God,” because that’s what he calculates people want to hear.

If there’s one interesting dynamic I noticed tonight: None of the other candidates likes Romney. Giuliani and McCain like each other. Giuliani and Huckabee like each other. McCain and Thompson like each other. But which other GOP candidate would so much as pull Romney out of the way of an oncoming bus? They all detest him (I’m pretty sure I’m not projecting here). Not a great quality in a potential nominee.

John McCain and Fred Thompson

These guys tied in the category of: guys whose campaigns reached the end of the road a long time ago. Thompson just wants to get back to the hot wife and a hot bath. McCain is disgusted with his party — especially on immigration and torture — but he’s realized he can’t save them. McCain looked just about dead out there. Thompson looked just about — well, you almost didn’t see him at all.

Ron Paul

I see: They’re not conspiracy theories, they’re reality. That clears up a lot. Really.

Tancredo and Hunter

Please just go away.

The winner of the debate, therefore: Rudy Giuliani. A hundred other bad things might have happened to him today, but a good day for Mike Huckabee is a bad day for Mitt Romney is a good day for Rudy Giuliani. What a primary.

PS: Having gotten gotten wrapped up in the winners and losers, I should mention: I hated the YouTube format this time out. I liked the Democrats’ YouTube debate, but the questions this time around, while less wacky, just plain sucked. The song at the beginning was painful. The Confederate flag is just so 2000. The Bible question was kind of offensive to religious folks (and look, I’m saying that). And, of course, we’ve got a Hillary Clinton plant asking about gays in the military. Jeez.

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