Despite the Great Law of Headline Question Marks, maybe so.

Things certainly do look grim for the Thompson campaign. When people in the press, such as myself, had an extremely skeptical reaction to the Thompson campaign as it puttered onto the scene in early September, we were accused of being out of touch with the Republican base, which would greet King Fred as a conquering hero. Well, the intervening months have more than borne out the initial skepticism. He’s dying in early states; he’s dying nationally, he’s just dying. His campaign has no energy; it’s not driving the debate in any meaningful way, and people are finally asking what all the fuss was ever about — if they even remember Fred’s still in the race in the first place.

We all knew Thompson didn’t stand much chance in New Hampshire. The northeast is his weakest region by far. Now, it appears the campaign is effectively conceding New Hampshire (polls have him in sixth place there and he’s not looking likely to make a push in the Granite State anytime soon).

The surprise, however, is just how badly he’s doing in Florida, which is clearly the linchpin of the campaign’s southern strategy. The St. Petersburg Times doesn’t seem to be a big fan of the Thompson campaign, but the polling numbers probably don’t lie. Ouch:

PENSACOLA - Presidential candidate Fred Thompson returned to Florida last week for a campaign rally in this military city at a time when his campaign needs to rally.

The meager crowd, no more than 100, waited in the cool bright morning for twice as long as the speech itself lasted. Just feet from the stage, along the ledge of the pier, a blowfish rotted in the sun. The parallels to Thompson’s campaign in Florida are inescapable.

…

In a recent St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 statewide poll, the former Tennessee senator slumped to fifth place, with 8 percent of the vote.

Again: Ouch.

When it comes down to it, I continue to believe this is a two-man race: Rudy v. Romney. Early state strategy v. national strategy. What cuts in Rudy’s favor is that while his national lead is solid, and probably insuperable at this late date, Romney’s early state leads are subject to a lot of turbulence. Say Mike Huckabee cuts into Romney’s win in Iowa or even overtakes him? That won’t mean Huckabee takes the nomination — not by a long shot — but it could destroy Romney before he gets out of the gate. Or, say John McCain wins New Hampshire? Again, McCain’s won New Hampshire and lost the nomination before. But it keeps the race without a clear frontrunner until Florida, when Rudy takes over and sweeps to the nomination.

Romney definitely has a scenario that takes him to the nomination: win the early three states and ride the momentum. It’s a more delicate strategy, but it’s there.

I can’t, for the life of me, see a scenario that carries any of the other Republicans very far.