Archive for November, 2007

Post-Debate Thoughts

Well, none of my questions really got asked (though, on the Ron Paul one I was close). So, I’ll just do what I usually try to do and give you my take on things before polluting my views by reading everyone else’s commentary.

Let’s work down a sliding scale from winners to losers:

Mike Huckabee

Man, is this guy good, or what? Maybe I was influenced by the intimidating image of Chuck Norris sitting down front, but this guy was on fire. His best exchange of the night was with Mitt Romney on college tuition and scholarships for children of illegal immigrants. He turned Romney’s demagoguery on the issue around 180 degrees, calmly explained what sounds like a perfectly reasonable program (I’m not familiar with the details — if Huckabee misrepresented it, I would have to reconsider), and made the former Massachusetts governor look practically hate-filled toward little immigrant children. He also gave eloquent answers on the death penalty and the Bible. And, as usual, he was the funniest of the bunch. If Mitt’s worried about Mike in Iowa — and, you know, he is — this made a Hawkeye State upset look all the more likely (which, of course, would make a Giuliani nomination all but inevitable); he may have clinched the VP slot on a Rudy ticket tonight. My one quibble is his stupid “let’s get rid of the IRS” rhetoric. That’s one thing for a fringe candidate like Ron Paul, but Huck’s moving into the big leagues. Time to act like it.

Rudy Giuliani

The former mayor didn’t have a stunningly good night, by any means. But he turned in his usual, strong, statistics-filled performance. On a night when he could have been playing serious defense — after Ben Smith’s expense report story — he came out swinging, nailing Romney with the best line of the night: “sanctuary mansion.” Ouch. Right on the unnaturally square jaw. Rudy hit a heckuva rough patch on gun control; but what can you expect when you’ve been a long-time gun-control advocate and suddenly have to do a 180? He’s taken minimal damage on this issue given how bad it could be. Just surviving with his pelt on a question like that is winning. Meanwhile, on taxes, the Bible, restoring our image in the Muslim world, etc., he did well. His video was far and away the funniest of the night, letting a little air out of all the boasting he’s done about his record in New York City (the “Reduced Annual Snowfall” bit was particularly great). For everyone who complains that he’s running on 9/11, I’ve always thought that’s unfair given how much attention his campaign, and his supporters, have given his deeper record in NYC.

To address the expense report story separately, which of course Rudy did when prompted by Anderson Cooper, I fail to see how there’s a real story here. I expect we’ll find out more as to how security expenses are usually paid for in the mayor’s office. But given that Mayor Giuliani had a security detail 24/7, as he said at the debate, no matter where he was, I just don’t see how it matters whether he was at Judy Nathan’s apartment, in Florida, in Kalamazoo, or anywhere else. As even the Smith story makes clear, other trips — completely non-Nathan-related — appear to have been billed in similar ways. I thought this afternoon that this might become a big story, but it looks like a whole lot of nothing to me a few hours later.

Mitt Romney

Now, my intense dislike of Mitt Romney contributes to my analysis here, but: wow, what a bad performance. Who “won” the Rudy-Romney exchange on immigration probably depends on who you liked going in (correct answer: they both lost, by perpetuating the GOP’s new anti-immigrant line). But he just came off as such a transparent liar on so many questions. He once looked forward to a day when gays could serve openly in the military; now that he has to win over homophobic GOP primary voters, he doesn’t anymore. He once supported a woman’s right to choose; miraculously enough, he underwent a politically convenient conversion on the issue. He’s against torture; but he has the balls to go toe-to-toe with John McCain on waterboarding. The former Baptist preacher can acknowledge that the Bible is allegorical; to Romney, it’s simply the “word of God,” because that’s what he calculates people want to hear.

If there’s one interesting dynamic I noticed tonight: None of the other candidates likes Romney. Giuliani and McCain like each other. Giuliani and Huckabee like each other. McCain and Thompson like each other. But which other GOP candidate would so much as pull Romney out of the way of an oncoming bus? They all detest him (I’m pretty sure I’m not projecting here). Not a great quality in a potential nominee.

John McCain and Fred Thompson

These guys tied in the category of: guys whose campaigns reached the end of the road a long time ago. Thompson just wants to get back to the hot wife and a hot bath. McCain is disgusted with his party — especially on immigration and torture — but he’s realized he can’t save them. McCain looked just about dead out there. Thompson looked just about — well, you almost didn’t see him at all.

Ron Paul

I see: They’re not conspiracy theories, they’re reality. That clears up a lot. Really.

Tancredo and Hunter

Please just go away.

The winner of the debate, therefore: Rudy Giuliani. A hundred other bad things might have happened to him today, but a good day for Mike Huckabee is a bad day for Mitt Romney is a good day for Rudy Giuliani. What a primary.

PS: Having gotten gotten wrapped up in the winners and losers, I should mention: I hated the YouTube format this time out. I liked the Democrats’ YouTube debate, but the questions this time around, while less wacky, just plain sucked. The song at the beginning was painful. The Confederate flag is just so 2000. The Bible question was kind of offensive to religious folks (and look, I’m saying that). And, of course, we’ve got a Hillary Clinton plant asking about gays in the military. Jeez.

Holy %#@&

I’m sorry. But there’s no other headline for this:

Canadian PSAs are NOT MESSING AROUND.

(via Gawker)

Question’s for the YouTube Debate

The questions for tonight’s GOP YouTube debate are doubtless already selected. Nonetheless, here are scripts for 10 questions I’d like to see asked:

  • [dressed as an altar boy] Mayor Giuliani, Monsignor Alan Placa is a Catholic priest credibly accused of — well, he’s a Catholic priest, so we already know what of. You’ve stood by Msgr. Placa, and reportedly he still draws a salary at Giuliani Partners. What gives?
  • [dressed as … I don’t know … the First Amendment] Senator McCain, you’ve campaigned as a staunch ally of the pro-life movement. Yet, in appointing judges, it seems you might have a hard (if not impossible) time finding jurists who would strike down Roe v. Wade while upholding your political-speech restrictions. Doesn’t this disqualify you on the judges question right out of the gate?
  • [dressed as Big Love from “House”] Governor Romney, would you appoint a qualified Muslim to a cabinet post?
  • [dressed as Chuck Norris] Governor Huckabee, you say you’re a “different kind of conservative.” Can you name one way in which this doesn’t simply mean “big-government conservative”?
  • [dressed as just a guy] Oh, Senator Thompson, I forgot you were still here … Uh … Um … You’re still here?
  • [dressed as a Mexican immigrant … without being offensive] Mayor Giuliani, in the 1990s, as mayor of New York City, you decried an “anti-immigrant wave” sweeping America. Now you’re part of a new anti-immigrant wave. Please explain what changed in the intervening years — without using the word “9/11.”
  • [dressed as a cancer patient … again, somehow not offensively] OK, Senator Thompson, since you are still here … You’ve campaigned as a consistent federalist. I applaud that. Does your federalism extend to stopping the federal government from shutting down medical-marijuana dispensaries in the states?
  • [dressed as an atheist … whatever that might mean] Governors Huckabee and Romney, both of you have implied heavily — or stated outright — that your faith is what qualifies you for office. Could an atheist be qualified for the presidency?
  • [dressed as a Klansman … this one will be offensive] Congressman Paul, your campaign has gotten a surprising amount of support from the “9/11 truth” movement and white supremacists. Do you have any message for them tonight?
  • To all the candidates, how do you pronounce this word?: [hold up placard with the word: “nuclear”]

This could end up being the last debate (other than the Spanish-language one on Univision) before the voting starts. So, that’s at least a relief.

Religion’s Relevance

As so often, I couldn’t agree with Christopher Hitchens more, here on the subject of Mitt Romney using his religion as a weapon and then crying bigotry as a shield:

According to Byron York, who has been riding around with Romney for National Review, it’s working, as well. Most journalists have tacitly agreed that it’s off-limits to ask the former governor about the tenets of the Mormon cult. Nor do they get much luck if they do ask…

It ought to be borne in mind that Romney is not a mere rank-and-file Mormon. His family is, and has been for generations, part of the dynastic leadership of the mad cult invented by the convicted fraud Joseph Smith. It is not just legitimate that he be asked about the beliefs that he has not just held, but has caused to be spread and caused to be inculcated into children. It is essential. Here is the most salient reason: Until 1978, the so-called Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints was an officially racist organization. Mitt Romney was an adult in 1978. We need to know how he justified this to himself, and we need to hear his self-criticism, if he should chance to have one.

Mike Huckabee doesn’t believe in evolution. That’s relevant, and to me disqualifying (disqualifying even to a vice presidential slot, I might add). If a believing Catholic were running (I don’t count Rudy Giuliani, nor did I count John Kerry), his or her religion would have direct bearing on his or her views on any number of issues, from abortion to birth control to foreign aid to support for Israel. And so on and so forth with every major religion.

Now, if there were a brighter line in our politics currently between religion and public policy, such questions might be less relevant. I’m more comfortable with a given candidate’s religion the more sure I am that they don’t actually believe it (see: Giuliani, Rudy; Kerry, John; Clintons, Bill and Hillary) or that they consider it a truly private matter (see: Bush, George H.W.). But when a candidate is both devout and vocal — saying, in effect, vote for me because I’m X — well, the values of X become a lot more important.

Mike Huckabee is saying, in his most recent ad, “Faith doesn’t just influence me, it really defines me” (as the words “CHRISTIAN LEADER” float across the screen). Mitt Romney has based his entire campaign on the idea that “people in this country want a person of faith to lead them,” hoping to convince an Evangelical GOP base that Mormons aren’t so scary.

So, yes, religion’s on the table. You can’t use religion as the basis of your appeal and then run and hide behind the words “religious bigotry” the second someone questions your beliefs — especially, in the case of Romney, when your church has an immensely disturbing history.

None of this means people shouldn’t vote for religious candidates if they want. America’s a very religious country, and profession of belief is a net positive for most candidates. But it does mean that what you believe becomes fair game. No having it both ways.

Finally

An indisputable link between gay marriage and terrorism:

BAGHDAD (CNN) — Soldiers manning a checkpoint near Baghdad stopped a wedding convoy to find that the purported bride and groom were wanted terror suspects, an Iraqi Defense Ministry official said Monday.

The Army set up the checkpoint last week in the Taji area, about 12 miles (20 kilometers) north of Baghdad.

The soldiers became suspicious of the convoy because its members — save the “bride” — were all male and because one of the cars in the convoy did not heed orders to stop, the official said.

Also, soldiers said, the people in the car seemed nervous and the groom refused to lift his bride’s veil when soldiers asked him to, according to the official.

Soldiers ordered everyone out of the car, the official said.

Upon inspecting the convoy, soldiers found a stubbly-faced man, Haider al-Bahadli, decked out in a white bride’s dress and veil.

Bahadli was wanted on terror-related charges, as was his groom, Abbas al-Dobbi, the official said.

Two other terror-related suspects were detained as well.

Scary lookin’ dude.

Who’s Funny on the Supreme Court?

Justice Scalia. It’s a scientific fact.

Turkey Is My Hot Hot Sex

I had this song in my head all through Thanksgiving:

Turkey Is My Hot Hot Sex Lyrics (Cansei De Ser Sexy)
Cansei De Ser Sexy - Turkey Is My Hot Hot Sex Lyrics

From all the drugs the one i like more is turkey
From all the junks the one i need more is turkey
From all the boys the one i take home is turkey
From all the ladies the one i kiss is turkey (muah!)

Turkey is my boyfriend
Turkey is my girlfriend
Turkey is my dead end
Turkey is my imaginary friend
Turkey is my brother
Turkey is my great-grand-daughter
Turkey is my sister
Turkey is my favorite mistress

From all the shit the one i gotta buy is turkey
From all the jobs the one i choose is turkey
From all the drinks the one i get drunk is turkey
From all the bitches the one i wannabe is turkey

Turkey is my beach house
Turkey is my hometown
Turkey is my kingsize bed
Turkey is my hot hot bath
Turkey is my hot hot sex
Turkey is my back rub
Turkey is where i’d like you to touch

Claro-que-sim
Fui escoteira-mirim
Direto da escola, não
Não ia cheirar cola
Nem basquete, pebolim
O que eu turkey não é de graça
O que gosto não é farsa
Tem guitarra, bateria, computador saindo som
Alguns dizem que mais alto que um furacão (rhéum)
Perto dele eu podia sentir
Saía turkey seu olho e chegava em mim
Sentada do seu lado
Eu queria encostar
Faria o tigela até o sol raiar
Debaixo do lençol
Ele gemia em ré bemol
Fiquei tensa
Mas tava tudo bem
Ele é fodão, mas eu sei que eu sou turkey

Have a good holiday weekend.

Libertarianism

The new “it” faction, according to the Washington Times.

Time for a Thompson Death Watch?

Despite the Great Law of Headline Question Marks, maybe so.

Things certainly do look grim for the Thompson campaign. When people in the press, such as myself, had an extremely skeptical reaction to the Thompson campaign as it puttered onto the scene in early September, we were accused of being out of touch with the Republican base, which would greet King Fred as a conquering hero. Well, the intervening months have more than borne out the initial skepticism. He’s dying in early states; he’s dying nationally, he’s just dying. His campaign has no energy; it’s not driving the debate in any meaningful way, and people are finally asking what all the fuss was ever about — if they even remember Fred’s still in the race in the first place.

We all knew Thompson didn’t stand much chance in New Hampshire. The northeast is his weakest region by far. Now, it appears the campaign is effectively conceding New Hampshire (polls have him in sixth place there and he’s not looking likely to make a push in the Granite State anytime soon).

The surprise, however, is just how badly he’s doing in Florida, which is clearly the linchpin of the campaign’s southern strategy. The St. Petersburg Times doesn’t seem to be a big fan of the Thompson campaign, but the polling numbers probably don’t lie. Ouch:

PENSACOLA - Presidential candidate Fred Thompson returned to Florida last week for a campaign rally in this military city at a time when his campaign needs to rally.

The meager crowd, no more than 100, waited in the cool bright morning for twice as long as the speech itself lasted. Just feet from the stage, along the ledge of the pier, a blowfish rotted in the sun. The parallels to Thompson’s campaign in Florida are inescapable.

In a recent St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 statewide poll, the former Tennessee senator slumped to fifth place, with 8 percent of the vote.

Again: Ouch.

When it comes down to it, I continue to believe this is a two-man race: Rudy v. Romney. Early state strategy v. national strategy. What cuts in Rudy’s favor is that while his national lead is solid, and probably insuperable at this late date, Romney’s early state leads are subject to a lot of turbulence. Say Mike Huckabee cuts into Romney’s win in Iowa or even overtakes him? That won’t mean Huckabee takes the nomination — not by a long shot — but it could destroy Romney before he gets out of the gate. Or, say John McCain wins New Hampshire? Again, McCain’s won New Hampshire and lost the nomination before. But it keeps the race without a clear frontrunner until Florida, when Rudy takes over and sweeps to the nomination.

Romney definitely has a scenario that takes him to the nomination: win the early three states and ride the momentum. It’s a more delicate strategy, but it’s there.

I can’t, for the life of me, see a scenario that carries any of the other Republicans very far.

Skin Cell to Stem Cell / Lead to Gold

Researchers in Japan and Wisconsin have figured out how to reprogram skin cells into stem cells. I’m obviously unqualified to offer too detailed an assessment, but the science press seems to be treating this as a watershed.

The issue, of course, is that stem cells, heretofore, have required the destruction of embryos — which the pro-life crowd considers ethically abhorrent. The practical problem this solves, however, as Wired explains, is eliminating the need for eggs:

If it works, the technique — technically known as somatic cell dedifferentiation — promises to solve the two great downfalls involved in producing embryonic stem cells: the controversial destruction of embryos and reliance on a limited supply of eggs.

The former issue will likely get all the attention, but in the long run the latter may be more important. Ethical debates and political controversy has stunted research — most notably, President Bush banned federal funding for research on embryonic stem cell lines developed after August 2001 — but the rise of state-funded programs, and the less-conflicted approach of other countries, is making this less of a problem.

There is, however, no easy answer to a limited egg supply. At present, a personal embryonic stem cell line — one that your body wouldn’t reject as foreign — can only be produced by putting a cell nucleus of your own into a fertilized egg from which the original nucleus was removed. Spare eggs are produced by women undergoing in-vitro fertilization — enough for researchers, but not enough for everyone.

But if all it takes to produce an embryonic stem cell equivalent is, essentially, a flake of skin, stem cell therapies will be that much more accessible, that much cheaper.

Great news for anyone who could ever benefit from stem-cell therapy. Also good news for Republican politicians, who can now be relieved of the burden of holding at least one scientifically backward position.

Waiting For God-Out

On Thursday night, I checked out the first-ever Great American God-Out, held in Midtown Manhattan (at a little place called Metro 53). Turnout was a little lighter than one might have expected in godless New York City (Home of the Jews and the Gays), but there were at least 60 God haters on hand, partying the night away.

Fighting a bad cold, I spent most of the evening reading Scientific American Mind at a table and nursing a gin and tonic (a drink noted for its cold-fighting properties). The bar had the Democratic debate on, without sound, which really is the ideal way to follow politics. The debate was replayed over the next few days on CNN; I watched with my wife and can confirm that sound did not enhance the experience.

Anyway, I was mostly interested in checking out the program from the stage — and I was not in the least disappointed…

[Before offering any commentary here, I suppose I should clarify my own entry point into all of this: I’m an agnostic, bordering on atheist. I’m broadly sympathetic to the goals of movement atheism (less religion in public life), but I’m in no way an activist or proselytizing atheist. Who has the energy?]

First up (after an introduction by event organizer Lydia Hartunian) was Margaret Downey, president of Atheists Alliance International. I’m afraid to say this was the “stereotypical shrill atheist” part of the program. Downey told how early that morning she blocked out the words “In God We Trust” on all of her currency. She had two dozen black markers to give out to the crowd so that they could do the same with their currency. “We refuse to be a link in a chain of proselytization,” she proclaimed. Michael Newdow, noted “Under God” unenthusiast, will apparently be bringing a lawsuit challenging our Deistic currency soon in the Ninth Circuit.

It’s not that I’m unsympathetic to the basic idea — if I could snap my fingers and remove the word “God” from every facet of our national life, especially any and all implements of government, I would — but the benefit-to-engendered-hatred-of-atheists ratio here is just incredibly low. If the goal of the atheist movement is to foster more people to “come out” as atheists and to convince others that atheists are A-OK folks — well, this is just about as backward a way to go about things as possible.

Next up was an incredibly painful act by “the singing Darwin scholar,” Richard Millner. The less said here the better. (A blues song about the Scopes trial… OK, I’ll stop.)

After that was the main event, a talk by Michael Shermer, publisher of Skeptic magazine. Now, right before Shermer came on stage, I found myself thinking: “I’ve seen this all before… the nerdiness… the social misfits convinced they’re right while everyone else is wrong… the ill-conceived ideas about how to win friends and alienate voters… yes, these people are libertarians!” Coincidentally enough, Shermer started off by mentioning that he’s a libertarian — but said he wasn’t going to get into that tonight.

Now, I’m guessing that the majority of the folks in attendance would not have called themselves libertarians (this was Manhattan after all, probably they were mostly Democrats or Independents or Greens or whatnot). But it did lead me to wonder: What percentage of libertarians are atheists, and what percentage of atheists are libertarians? I’ve never seen survey data, but that’s not to say there isn’t any out there. I’m guessing the overlap is pretty significant.

Despite not getting into the libertarian angle, though, Shermer’s talk was thoughtful and sobering. “This is about as good as it’s ever been for atheists,” he declared. And that sounds right, even if a thrice-married black, gay, Mormon would have a better chance of being elected president than an open atheist. (I think it’s more than likely we’ve had plenty of closeted atheist presidents, just as it’s likely we’ve had a closeted gay president [you thought the link would be to an Abe Lincoln joke … you were wrong].) Shermer pegs the number of atheists in America at 60 million, very broadly defined to include folks like Buddhists, who don’t believe in a traditional theistic religion. What’s more, he argues, President Bush, 9/11, extremist Evangelicals, and murderous Muslim extremists all have contributed to a climate of more and more Americans being fed up with religion. Atheists shouldn’t demand anti-God purity, he argued. Atheists (and we should just embrace the term, instead of trying to come up with ridiculous neologisms like Brights) should embrace like thinkers with open arms.

Meanwhile, Shermer argued, sociological research is discrediting long-held prejudices with regard to atheism. Studies make it clear that believers and non-believers exhibit precisely no difference in sinful behavior such as adultery, murder, theft, etc. etc. etc. (Our behavior is guided much more by societal norms and an evolutionary need to fit in and cooperate.) In fact, the religiosity of a modern, industrialized society seems to have an inverse relation to societal health — that is, the more religious belief there is in a society, the more likely it is to display signs of cultural dysfunction, like crime, abortion, drug use, etc. (see: Western Europe versus the United States).

In the end, paradoxically, the best weapon against religion seems to be removing the wall of separation between church and state. Whereas religion thrives in America as churches and religious denominations have to compete with each other for members and money, European religion has withered, fat and happy with its state support.

Perhaps having “In God We Trust” on the currency isn’t such a dangerous thing after all. Perhaps it’s just a day late and a dollar short.

Mike Huckabee Fact

Mike Huckabee has no substance; but he’s got a lot of style:

(via every goddamned blog on the Internets)

McCain Death Watch: Losing in Arizona Edition

Well, we now have the first 2008 poll (PDF) showing John McCain losing Arizona to Rudy Giuliani. It’s from Behavioral Research Center, and shows Giuliani up a slim 2 points (definitely margin of error) over the Arizona senator in the Grand Canyon State. The results:

Giuliani: 20%
McCain: 18%
Romney: 11%
Thompson: 10%

Also: Polls, including one from Behavioral Research Center, have shown that McCain would lose a 2010 Senate reelection bid were Governor Napolitano to run against the great Maverick hope.

Common

Surprisingly enough, Sager is one of the top 5,000 most common surnames in America.

Look for yours here.

N.Y. Post: A McCain Mutiny

My latest in the N.Y. Post:

SEN. John McCain has a problem: Some of his supporters have decided to run ads boosting his campaign down in South Carolina.

Why is that a problem? The group running the ad is endrunning McCain’s beloved campaign-finance restrictions. So the senator can either admit that the “independent groups” he’s spent so much time railing against aren’t really an existential threat to American democracy, or he can relentlessly denounce his own supporters for having the temerity to try to get their candidate elected.

He’s chosen the latter option. But instead of proving how principled he is, he’s merely helped demonstrate how counterproductive his brand of speech regulation truly is.

Yes, I know: Me hating on John McCain. You’ve seen it before. But the irony of this latest episode is so delicious I’m worried about being too full for Thanksgiving dinner.

Sushi Jesus

Click.

Touch This

NYU students would give up their right to vote in the 2008 election for an iPod Touch.

This is New York, people. Hillary in the primary, Hillary in the general. One vote most certainly does not count.

I’d give up my vote this cycle for a ham sandwich.

Rudy’s First TV Ad

Here’s Rudy’s first TV ad:

I think it’s rather well done. I (probably unsurprisingly) like it when he focuses on his results in New York City as opposed to the accident of history that was his presiding over 9/11.

The ad will be saturating the air in Manchester and Boston for the next week. It’s worth remembering, when people make so much of Mitt Romney’s leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, that he’s had the airwaves largely to himself for months now. This is the longtime national frontrunner’s first TV ad in an early state. Now, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea to let Romney have all that time to himself; though, given Romney’s self-funding I understand the decision not to piss money away in July-August-September-October of 2007. But advertising by Giuliani is bound to move the needle coming into December.

We political junkies may have been obsessing for a year, but things are just starting to get real for everyone else.

Inspired

I’m sure this is going around, but…

Rappers and Presidential Candidates

(via Darcy)

‘McCain Death Watch’ Death Watch: Rudy Attacks Edition

In a column not too long ago, I derided the idea of a McCain comeback. I still deride it (deride!), but with John McCain showing life in a few polls, it seems prudent to revisit the issue.

In particular, I gave a useful rule to judge just how real any potential comeback might be: “So, as the stories inevitably come heralding the resurgence of John McCain, here’s a handy tip as to whether you should believe them: When either Mr. Giuliani or Mr. Thompson starts attacking the war hero whose endorsement they both want, then you’ll know he poses a serious threat. Until then, it’s all just the latest bogus trend story.”

Well, dear reader, Rudy Giuliani has started attacking John McCain. It started out last week as the Giuliani camp responding to some swipes from the McCain camp. That, I thought, really didn’t count. Giuliani couldn’t just lie still while McCain kicked him. Unless Giuliani were initiating the attacks, it really didn’t fit my rule. Well, on Friday, Giuliani’s campaign attacked McCain on a $3 million loan his campaign’s trying to secure and on the independent advertisements supporting the senator in South Carolina.

So, why is this happening? Well, McCain has moved back into second place, edging out Fred Thompson for the spot, in some national polls. More importantly, though, he’s tied things up with Giuliani in New Hampshire. Giuliani expects to lose Iowa to Mitt Romney (rightly so), but he wants to win New Hampshire so as not to go into Florida and February 5 0-3 in the early states.

I continue to think the sniping between Giuliani and McCain is at a low enough level so as not to jeopardize a possible Rudy endorsement should McCain decide to drop out early — McCain hates Mitt Romney almost as much as I do, and he’s not about to endorse the fading-fast Fred Thompson effort.

As for a McCain resurgence? I could end up eating my hat, but this still looks to me like a Rudy-Romney race, with Romney playing a very traditional early state strategy and Rudy playing a very innovative national strategy. I don’t see any scenario where McCain could win, between extreme dislike from the Republican base and, well, NO MONEY.

Still, this is a “‘Death Watch’ Death Watch” item, not a “Death Watch” item.

Neuroscience 2007

Have I mentioned I just got back from the 2007 meeting of the Society for Neuroscience, held in sunny San Diego, California? Yes, in my last two posts? Okay, well, I still haven’t given my roundup of just went on there and what conclusions one might take away from it.

So, let me do that now…

First off, since I’ve gotten the question from friends, a note as to why I’m suddenly paying so much attention to neuroscience. In short, it’s caught my interest. The longer answer: Of all the fields of human endeavor, neuroscience strikes me as the most likely to have the biggest impact on how we understand and experience the world in my lifetime. After centuries of speculation and philosophy, we have just in the last few decades begun to solve the problems of how to look inside the living human brain, how to understand what we’re seeing, and how to use that understanding to alter the brain and allow the brain to alter the world. The brain has a language, we’ve just begun to translate it, and what we learn (and what we learn to do) is going to turn major parts of the world upside down.

So, with that, let me try to find some decent way to take you through things. First off, this is a BIG conference. Some 30,000+ folks come out for it — scientists, students, exhibitors, a small gaggle of press. A team of reporters couldn’t keep up with one-tenth of the presentations, posters, symposia, minisymposia, workshops, meetings, socials, and satellite events; so I can only give you the snapshot of what I saw.

#1 — Jeff Hawkins, inventor of the Palm Treo and founder of the Redwood Neuroscience Institute and Numenta

The first big talk I made it out to on Saturday, one of the featured lectures, was Jeff Hawkins on the topic, “Why Can’t a Computer Be More Like a Brain?” Good question. Despite all outward appearances, it turns out computers are very, very stupid. The example Hawkins used was this: Give a computer a bunch of sets of pictures of cats and dogs, then ask it which pictures are of which animals; no computer in existence can pass this test. (My old Apple IIc would just crawl under a table and hide; my MacBook Pro would, too; as would Big Blue.) The point here is that even the simplest task, something that can be accomplished by a two-year-old human, is virtually impossible to accomplish with a computer at this time.

Why?

Well, we, as humans, have a tremendous amount of very complex information in our brains about cats and dogs. Computers don’t. Unless, of course, we teach it to them. The question, though, is how to design a computer that can learn. Hawkins looks at the question as one of how the human brain distributes information. His model is Hierarchical Temporal Memory (explained somewhat on the Numenta Web site). The idea, essentially, is that the brain stores information hierarchically, with many pictures of dogs and cats stored together under the headings “dogs” and “cats.” Each category is a subset of some larger category (animals, say, or furry animals), and each category has various subsets (labs, beagles, puppies, pugs). Each node on the hierarchy represents an algorithm that allows the brain to process what it’s looking at.

Using this concept, Hawkins and his lab have created a platform that can be taught to look at rudimentary drawings (of things like mugs, helicopters, dogs, etc.) and classify them. After a significant amount of “training” with test images, they’ve had decent success in getting a computer to recognize what it’s looking at. The drawings are very crude, but after training the computer is correctly classifying unique images it’s never been trained on (it’s seen a lot of drawings of mugs, for instance, but it hasn’t seen this one) — so that seems pretty promising.

A computer that can learn is sort of the holy grail (Hawkins quoted Bill Gates, who said a computer that can learn would be worth 10 Microsofts). And, of course, once we have such a thing working, it doesn’t have to be limited by the human senses. The concept could be applied to things like weather or seismology — imagine a computer brain whose “senses” were every weather station in the world or every seismometer.

Of course, this talk wasn’t purely, or even mostly, neuroscience. But without the insights we’re gaining into the brain, this progress wouldn’t be being made.

[Another talk by Hawkins on the same subject is here on Google Video. Examples of the drawings the computers are looking at appear around 30 minutes in.]

#2 — Press panel on the normal aging brain

On Sunday, there was a panel for the press on the normal aging brain — that is, a look at what happens to the brain as we age in the absence of disease. It’s truly depressing to look at exactly how one’s brain will decline, even if one dodges various bullets in terms of disease. Nonetheless, a couple bullet points from the presentation:

* Old people really do have a worse sense of direction — Scott Moffat, PhD, at Wayne State University in Detroit, presented a study in which old people and young people navigated a virtual environment. Both old people and young people did a pretty decent job at remembering a series of landmarks in the virtual world. But old people did much worse at remembering which way to go at those landmarks. Also, old people did a worse job of filtering out useless information, remembering meaningless landmarks (not associated with a choice point) that younger people correctly ignored.

* Risk factors for stroke, like high cholesterol and a physically inactive lifestyle, may be linked to an increased risk of Alzheimer’s.

* Physical fitness is closely related to maintaining cognitive ability — We’ve known this about cardiovascular health for a while. But research presented by Claudia Völcker-Rehage of Jacobs University in Bremen, Germany, indicates that balance training (such as Tai Chi) may also be important.

# 3 —Andy Grove, former CEO of Intel

Also on Sunday, Andy Grove gave a talk about, “Translating Neuroscience: Can Systems Engineering and Lessons from High-Tech Take Us Beyond the R01 Culture?” Grove, who had prostate cancer and now has Parkinson’s, has come to take an interest in what he calls “bio-enterprise.” He looks at progress in the semiconductor industry in 30 years (gigantic) versus progress in treatment of Parkinson’s in 50 years (minimal) and — well, he’s pissed off.

He broke down the problems with biomedical research into three headings: speed, failure, and success.

Speed — In semiconductors, Grove said, they could test new patterns on little corners of existing, commercially sold wafers, creating a constant stream of “FedEx Trucks” sending tests out and results in to the company. Biomedical research gets packed onto trains, and they leave the station once a decade (that is, large-scale clinical trials that have to play out in humans over years). We need to find ways to speed up testing.

Failure — In short, biomedical research doesn’t spend enough time looking at its failures and trying to glean useful lessons. In semiconductors, a mistake can lead to a whole new type of memory system. In medicine, things get swept under the rug or subsumed in averages of multiple data points. Why did that one patient get better on the treatment? It might be coincidence; or it might be a breakthrough.

Success — Here, Grove talked about something a number of speakers were talking about: “We are about to experience an explosion of Alzheimer’s disease cases. Population statistics, incident rates and demographic changes indicate that the incidence of AD is doubling every five years. North America alone is going to have multiple millions of cases in a few more years, and when you look at the economic aspect of this, by 2030, the spending on Alzheimer’s disease will be as much as the total Medicare spending on everything in this country today. This is not a stochastic process. This is not a maybe. This is going to happen plus or minus a little bit.” His point was that even if we had a sure-thing treatment for AD, if it cost, say, $1 billion, it would be almost impossible to put together the funding to develop the treatment.

Summing up the difference between semiconductors and bio-enterprise, Grove offered this: “The semiconductor industry says ‘what matters is time to money’ … In the bio-enterprise, my impression is the corresponding statement is ‘good science takes time.’ Is that true? Yes. Does it help? No.”

His suggestions for improving the situation:

* More focus on biomarkers (reliable ways to measure the progress of diseases and the effectiveness of drugs)

* More open data

* A risk-multiplier for patent extensions, rewarding truly innovative drugs over “me-too” drugs

[The full speech transcript is available here.]

#4 — Press panel on emerging technologies in neuroscience

The highlight here was Mark Ellisman discussing plans for a “Whole Brain Catalog” (think “Whole Earth Catalog“) that would be something like Google Maps (crossed with Wikipedia) for the brain.

#5 — Martha Farah of the University of Pennsylvania

On Monday, Martha Farah gave a talk on neuroethics. At least, that’s how the talk was billed. To my mind, it was mostly a listing of really cool things people are doing with neuroscience, with a coda at the end that said: “And there are ethical implications to all this.” Maybe she ran out of time.

I don’t mean in any way to insult the talk, though, as it was one of my favorites.

A few tidbits I picked up:

* The fall 2007 Jack Daniels ad campaign made use of neuromarketing data. (I’ve learned, in my short time following this stuff, to be more than skeptical regarding the limitations of what neuromarketing can tell us right now … but I’m still excited to see corporate America getting interested.)

* A 2001 case in Iowa has set out the groundwork for so-called “brain-fingerprinting” (a form of lie detection) to be admitted into evidence.

* I posted the YouTube to this before, but I’ll mention it again: A company called Emotiv is getting ready to introduce a game where you move objects using EEG (i.e., your mind).

* Brain scanning could be used to measure personality traits (extroversion, etc.) and to measure things in an educational setting, such as reading ability.

Ethical issues include: distributive justice (rich folks will have access; others, not-so-much at first), privacy, safety, and freedom (is there a Fifth Amendment right not to have your brain scanned during a police interrogation?).

#6 — Newt Gingrich

I can’t get away from Newt. This wasn’t CPAC, but for some reason the former Republican Speaker of the House was there. Actually, he gave a great speech and was surprisingly well received by a bunch of presumably liberal scientists.

His first message was simple: Lobby Congress. You won’t get what you need if you don’t tell anyone. You can’t, as citizens, not engage the political world and then complain when Congress does something stupid that hinders you. My sense is the neuroscience community has been doing a good job of getting organized in this regard, so the message fit with the direction things are already going.

Other suggestions from Newt:

* A pool of federal grant money should be set aside for scientists under 40 — people too young to know that certain things can’t be done.

* A government-awarded-prize system should figure more prominently in encouraging the development of drugs.

* Help government come up with an overarching strategy as regards Alzheimer’s. (He’s starting a group to look at the issue — which, to anyone who follows Newt, could not be less surprising.)

#7 — Press panel on brain-machine interface

Last but certainly not least, on Tuesday, was the amazing presentation on brain-machine interface — which I already wrote up here. The basic point: We can record the firing of neurons in the motor cortex, figure out what movements they correspond to, and then use the translation to direct robotic limbs. From here, it’s all a problem of refinement.
OVERARCHING THEMES:

I’ll spare you. But I’ll just say the speed of developments is fast and only likely to get faster. Things that sound like science fiction now are likely to be cutting edge and then old news in most of our lifetimes — assuming you’re, say, under 50. Anything we can kind-of, sort-of, just-barely do right now, we’ll eventually perfect. I can’t wait for tomorrow.

Now This Is Bleak

Click.

Vote Tancredo

If you haven’t seen the new Tom Tancredo ad, you’re missing out. Apparently, illegal immigrants aren’t just here to steal our jobs, they also want to blow up our malls:

Forget, of course, that all 19 of the 9/11 hijackers entered our country legally on tourist or student visas issued by the INS (albeit many of them with fraudulent information on their applications). The important thing to remember is that immigrants equal poverty and death.

CHiPs and Dips

Side of Highway with Car

Not long after taking the picture above, I had one of two run-ins with law enforcement on my recent trip through the Southwest.

(I attended the Society for Neuroscience annual conference last week in San Diego. I got there and back by flying in to and out of Albuquerque, N.M., and driving 2,200 miles back and forth in a very ugly orange rental car [pictured above]. Yeah, and I did all this during NBC’s “Green Is Universal” week. Ironic.)

Moments after snapping a few pictures along the side of Route 8, which runs East-West close to the Mexican border in southern California, a Highway Patrol cruiser pulled up behind me. I was half worried and half relieved (if you catch my drift) that I wasn’t doing anything stupider than taking pictures.

The officer asked me what the problem was. I told him there was none. He proceeded to inform me that I was in a “high-crime zone,” where people stopped along the side of the highway to pick up illegal immigrants and shipments of drugs. The implication was not that a stupid New Yorker like me shouldn’t be in such a place, with regard to my safety. The implication was clearly that I might be picking up illegal immigrants and/or drugs (little does he know, I support the free and legal importation of both!). He spent a few minutes poking around in the bushes next to the road to see if there were any illegal immigrant drug mules hiding — there weren’t (though how bad would my luck have been if there had been?).

The cop definitely did seem to be telling the truth about things; he pointed out to me a foot path that clearly saw a lot of use heading off into the hills along the border. Still, I was mostly just glad he didn’t ask to search my car. As a libertarian, I would have felt a definite responsibility to refuse such a request (I can’t see how he would have had probable cause). But it probably would have meant getting thrown in the back of a Highway Patrol cruiser.

All in all, though, I thought this cop acted reasonably. It was my second run in, with Border Patrol, that left me pissed.

I don’t remember if this happened in Arizona or New Mexico, but it was on Route 10, which runs from Tucson, AZ, to Las Cruces, NM (an amazing drive — I recommend it). Chalk it up to my own ignorance about border enforcement, but I was pretty surprised to run into a Border Patrol checkpoint on a road that never gets closer than 90 miles to the Mexican border. It turns out, though, that within 100 miles of the border, the government can set up checkpoints to question and harass people traveling entirely within the United States (for instance, from San Diego to Las Cruces to points north).

“Are you an American citizen?” the BP agent asked me.

“Yes,” I answered, only half having turned my stereo down (I did not want to miss “Cherub Rock.”). Of course, Americans don’t yet have to carry their papers everywhere they go (at least until Rudy Giuliani becomes president), so he would have to take my word.

“Where are you headed?,” the BP asked.

Intrusive, but I answered Albuquerque.

“What for?,” he asked.

“To catch a flight.”

“Why aren’t you flying out of El Paso?,” he asked, now really pissing me off.

“Because I’m flying out of Albuquerque,” I answered, growing uncooperative.

“This is a long way out of your way,” he said.

“Look, I had a conference to go to in San Diego,” I said. “I wanted to drive around some, so I flew in to Albuqurque and am driving back and forth.”

“Drive around?,” he asked, quizzically.

“Look at the scenery,” I said. The “jackass” was implied.

Finally, I guess he decided he wasn’t going to search my car. Again, I don’t know what I would have done had he decided otherwise. But after this exchange I was probably pissed off enough to go to jail to avoid cooperating. I only learned later, online, that the Supreme Court has upheld warrantless searches within 100 miles of the border.

I must say this all strikes me as completely outrageous. And obviously not just because I was inconvenienced (I’m a white guy, and the whole thing probably lasted 30 or 40 annoying seconds — I can’t imagine the shit I would have been put through if my skin were darker and my explanation for what I was doing just as eccentric). The fact is that we have a Bill of Rights, and it’s supposed to protect us from harassment by the federal government. The Fourth Amendment, of course, springs to mind (one might also invoke the Ninth Amendment’s right to privacy).

The Supreme Court has deemed these checkpoints constitutional, in United States vs. Martinez (1976), but that doesn’t mean the court decided the case correctly. American citizens simply shouldn’t be subject to daily harassment inside their own country. But that’s what we get when we pursue an insane war on drugs and a racist war on immigrants.

Mechanical Monkey-Mind Movement and More

The Society for Neuroscience is wrapping up its annual conference. This year it was held in San Diego, and I’m currently in transit on my way back from it.

Before giving some more coherent thoughts (probably when I get back to my desk in Brooklyn), I wanted to share a small taste of the most remarkable thing I saw: the science-fiction-like progress being made in brain-machine interface. That’s using signals recorded from the brain to affect the outside world, such as creating robotic limbs for amputees or allowing the movement of a computer cursor with one’s mind.

Perhaps most astounding to me was a video along the lines of this, where a monkey feeds itself by means of a robotic arm (the monkey is not an amputee, for those concerned, its arms are just immobilized) attached to an array reading neuron firings in its motor cortex:

And this is an old video. Andrew Schwartz, of the University of Pittsburgh’s Motorlab, showed a much more impressive video in a press conference on Tuesday (not yet available for distribution), in which the monkey appeared to have much better control of the arm — including a wider range of motion and finer motor control.

Amazing things are possible with these arrays hooked directly into brains. One thing being tested in humans right now is this BrainGate device, allowing a paraplegic to move a cursor around a computer screen. This local news broadcast gives a peek (ignore the hokey “Twilight Zone” music):

Of course, there’s also a demand for less intrusive devices. To that end, Eric Sellers showed off the Wadsworth Center’s BCI Home System, which uses EEG (electroencephalography, which is non-invasive) to allow ALS patients to “type” using only their brains. It’s far from perfect, but it seems to offer an improvement over eye-tracking devices, which perform a similar function.

Another EEG application is far more commercial: video games. A company called Emotiv is shortly to release a game where players control the action with their minds. It’s pretty rudimentary stuff, but first of its kind. And there’s a video demo:

Now, EEG is far less powerful than direct implantation of arrays into the brain — obviously because it’s reading a much weaker signal. Schwartz told me EEG is just doing now what direct implantation could do 12 years ago. But it’s also the only way most people would ever be willing to experience brain-machine interface (there aren’t too many people clamoring to have things implanted in their brains … yet), so I hope some serious effort is put into that end of things.

All in all, it’s hard for someone of my generation to avoid thinking of Luke’s prosthetic hand in “Star Wars.” A “long, long time ago” might just end up being in my lifetime.

Rudy and Robertson

Anyone surprised by Pat Robertson’s endorsement of Rudy Giuliani hasn’t been paying attention.

That said, this really is a big one — and it ends the debate over whether Giuliani can make himself acceptable to the Christian Right wing of the Republican Party. I’ve been making the case that he can for well over a year now. Paul Weyrich may have endorsed Mitt Romney. And Sam Brownback may have endorsed John McCain. And James Dobson still may be looking for his anybody-but-Rudy candidate. But if Pat Robertson can stomach our drag-wearing, abortion-tolerating, gay-couple-living-with, three-wife-having ex-mayor … a lot of unlikely folks out there in the countryside can do so as well. The polling has been telling us this for months and months, along with on-the-ground reporting from the campaign trail, but now it’s 100% confirmed.

Still, this really is a remarkable political moment. The War on Terror has clearly eclipsed the culture wars as the defining issue in the conservative movement for better or for worse. (Andrew Sullivan seems to think it’s for the worse. I’m undecided on the question, but I’m leaning toward the position that it’s the healthiest turn of events for the party for which one could reasonably hope.)

The question then is whether Giuliani really wants the Robertson endorsement. If Giuliani thought Ron Paul’s theory of 9/11’s root causes was crazy and offensive…

… well, then maybe he’s never heard what Robertson has to say on the matter:

If Giuliani is offended by the idea that we invited 9/11 by attacking Iraq, maybe he should also be offended by the idea that we invited 9/11 by allowing secularism and paganism and abortion in our society.

Of course, the politics of the situation dictate that Giuliani celebrate the Robertson endorsement. And that’s what he’s doing. Publicly rejecting the endorsement or otherwise rebuking Robertson would be political suicide. Still, there’s a huge amount of hypocrisy involved here, and Giuliani deserves to take the hit for it among non-Christian Right voters. He should definitely get a question on this at the next debate — at the very least.

On the Road

M.O. is on the road through November 10, on the way out to San Diego and the greater southwest for some work and some not-so-much work.

Will check in as warranted…

For those wondering: I’ve left my post at the New York Sun and will be returning as a columnist at the New York Post. Some Latest Politics features, such as the primary indices and the McCain Death Watch, will likely be resumed here in coming days. As you may notice, this site is undergoing something of a redesign. Excuse any design kerfuffles in the interim.

UPDATE [10:55 MDT, 11/1/07]: As I’ve gotten questions, I want to be clear my writing for the Post again has nothing to do with John Podhoretz having given up his column to edit Commentary. I’m currently a freelancer, as I was there through the beginning of this year.

I’m Suing

You may have heard…

Former senator from Pennsylvania and all around goober Rick Santorum will be writing a column for the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The column’s name? The Elephant in the Room. Needless to say, I’ve contacted my lawyers.




 

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