I’ve had my problems in the past with polls from American Research Group.

Essentially, they refused to put Rudy in their polls (at least on the first round of questions) well past the period of time when that decision made sense.

Now, it seems they have started polling the GOP primary more appropriately. And the results are pretty encouraging for Rudy supporters:

Iowa: Rudy leads GOP caucus goers.

New Hampshire: Rudy is in second place, but within the margin of error.

Nevada: Rudy leads GOP caucus goers.

South Carolina: Rudy trails McCain by 7 points.

The Iowa numbers are fairly remarkable, given Rudy’s soft organization (OK, lack of organization) at the ground level in most states. His virtual tie in New Hampshire is also remarkable, given how popular Maverick McCain is in the Granite State. South Carolina is the most worrisome state for Giuliani in this set of polls. Voters are only going to learn more about his social liberalism coming into 2008, so a win in the Palmetto State would require some pieces falling into place.

Now, I think those pieces can fall into place. Wins in Iowa and/or New Hampshire could give Giuliani significant momentum coming into South Carolina. Also, I think the more voters see of him the more they’ll like him — even (perhaps especially) social conservatives. But it remains a close race.

Let’s just say, though, I’d rather be Rudy than McCain. I’d really hate to be Mitt Romney (IA: 7%, NH: 9%, NV: 4%, SC: 5%).