Having poked some fun (and not-so-fun) at our good friend K. Lo over her bad Santorum-comeback predictions, let’s dredge up my (day-)old predictions from Election Eve and see how I did:
SENATE
Maryland: Steele (R) beats Cardin (it’s everyone’s pick for “upset of the night,” making it the new CW)
Missouri: McCaskill (D) beats Talent
Montana: Tester (D) beats Burns (my least confident prediction — Burns could ride an infusion of money and anti-tax ads to an undeserved reelection victory)
New Jersey: Menendez (D) beats Kean (corruption be damned — this is Jersey)
Ohio: Brown (D) beats DeWine (no Blackwell coattails, I’m afraid — or, at least, they’re going the wrong way)
Pennsylvania: Casey (D) beats Santorum (good riddance)
Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) beats Chafee (OK riddance)
Tennessee: Corker (R) beats Ford (southerners come home)
Virginia: Webb (D) beats Allen (Virginians come home … but black Virginians find a severed deer head in their mailbox)
Dems net +5. Cheney rules the roost.
HOUSE
This is where I just make up a number and pretend I know more than anyone else. 38.
Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) becomes minority leader.
GOVERNORS
Colorado: Ritter (D) beats Beauprez (this hardly counts as a prediction)
Nevada: Titus (D) upsets Gibbons (based on the scandal surrounding Gibbons — I promise not to take credit for this as part of my interior West thesis)
Idaho: Brady (D) stuns Otter (couldn’t tell you why, but this seems to be how the polls are moving)
Dems hold seven of eight interior West governorships … up from four in 2004 and zero in 2000.
HOUSE SURPRISES OF THE NIGHT
House enters court-mandated rehab for prescription-drug addiction. (GOP House enters rehab for Medicare-prescription-drug addiction.)
Also…
Idaho 1: Grant (D) upsets wacko Sali (niiice)
Wyoming at large: Nutty Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) loses (very niiice)
The GOP’s losses out West pile up.
SENATE NON-SURPRISE OF THE NIGHT
Connecticut: Lieberman (Independent Democrat) crushes Ned Lamont like a bug
Will he cross the aisle of a 50-50 Senate?
Tune in next week …
(P.S.: AZ will be closer than the polls have shown. Kyl still wins.)
Senate: I expected a near Democratic sweep, winning all of the pick-ups they needed, but losing the MD seat that they needed to keep — which would have meant a 50-50 Senate. Well, they ended up getting all those pick-ups, and holding MD. They had a hell of a night in the Senate. Take a bow Sen. Schumer. How I did: I called the Steele race wrong. My excuse: Blame Robert George.
House: Not to disclaim my prediction, but I did just make that number up. How I did: Still, I wasn’t too far off. My excuse: I expected a few more of the seats that came down to the wire in the West to tip (long-shots like Idaho-1 and Wyoming at-large). [also: House didn’t enter court-mandated rehab, but that slimy cop’s got his ball’s in a vice on writing forged prescriptions … thank you Mr. DVR]
Governors: My predictions here were a lark, and only dealt with the West. How I did: One for three. My excuse: Nevada’s Republican nominee had some weird scandals dogging him. I thought it would catch up with him. And I admitted up front that this race was too quirky to fit into my Western thesis one way or another. In Idaho, it was still closer than it should have been in Idaho.
AZ Senate: I bought the hype that this race was going to be tighter than expected. In the end, it tracked the polls almost precisely. How I did: I was wrong. My excuse: I’m an idiot.







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