Tom Reynolds, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, takes on the rumors of a 2006 GOP Congressional wipeout in this (PDF) Landscape Memo, sent out to members of the Republican conference. People may be pissed at Congress, he acknowledges, but Republicans should be safe because of redistricting and because the Democrats are incompetent.

Now, I’ve never disputed that the Democrats aren’t offering a palatable alternative. But when your enemies’ incompetence is the only thing saving you… you’re working on borrowed time.

I’m also not entirely convinced by this point, though it is an interesting bit of history to keep in mind this year. I quote (the PDF seems to be done as an image, not text — so %$#$^$#^%#$^#$^#@$!$@! annoying — so here’s an image of the relevant passage):

Now, it is worth remembering the 1998 midterm elections — and even, to some extent the 2000 presidential election — to remind Republicans just how ineffective the hammering of Clinton’s sex life was as a political tactic.

But 1998 is the year the GOP ran against Clinton’s sex life. When they ran against him on substantive, size of government issues — as in, say, 1994 — they met with resounding success.

Similarly, the lesson Democrats should take might look something like this: If you try to win Congress based on words like “Halliburton” and “Valerie Plame,” you’ll lose, lose badly and deserve to lose badly; if you find your voice on substantive issues, perhaps even morphing into the party of fiscal discipline (Bush has left that space wide open), you have a shot.

Congressional elections are won on local issues … except for the cycles when they’re not.